Events

A MarketGraphics Reserach Forecast by Joe Zanola - President of Zanola Company. Presented in partnership with the HBA of Greater Springfield and the Springfield Business Journal on Thursday, October 30 from 10:00 am to 11:00 am.

A uniquie opportunity to receive “hot-off-the-press” 2008 local housing and subdivision information specifically for lenders.

This is an exclusive presentation of high energy, no nonsense, and data driven strategies to be successful in today’s market.

RSVP to the HBA office of Greater Springfield at 417-881-3711.

Residential Development & Construction Summit for Lenders

The presentation of 30 Frightening Factors that Could be Killing Your Bottom Line and 30 Easy Fixes to Scare Up Some Business was held this morning at Zanola Company’s creepy conference room. There wasn’t an open seat in the room of bankers, developers and realtors.

Attendees learned over thirty low cost, highly effective strategies to better position their new home developments in today’s market. The presentation concluded with an open group conversation regarding current new homes market opportunities.

A few lucky attendees walked away with a certificate for a complimentary 30 Point Site Analysis from Zanola Company that can be used to evaluate one of their new home developments. If you would like to hear more information about this presentation or to schedule your own 30 Point Site Analysis, contact Zanola Company at 314.918.7200.

Date: August 27, 2008

Time: 1pm-3pm

Location: Zanola Company

9315 Manchester Road

St. Louis, MO 63119

314-918-7200 (office)

Zanola Company invites you to attend this free, educational seminar that will examine trends and staffing in the current economy-what we’ve seen in the field and how it’s different than three years ago.

You’ll learn:

What makes up a successful sales person?

-Learn the specific ingredients that create a sales person who can thrive in any market!

How can you tell if your current sales staff is reaching their full potential?

-Uncover non-threatening evaluation tips that allow you to re-tool the sales team you already have!

What tools can help make your sales team more productive and efficient?

-Discover unique calendar planning, sales reporting and outreach techniques to rev up your sales team!

Space is limited so reserve your seat now!

RSVP to Rachel Ballard

rballard@zanolaco.com

314.918.7200

A MarketGraphics Research Forecast by Edsel Charles

In conjunction with the Annual New Product Showcase presented by The Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.

Wednesday, July 16 1:00 - 2:00 - Greensfelder Recreation Complex in Queeny Park (550 Weidman Road, Ballwin, MO 63011)

Edsel will present the “hot-off-the-press” MarketGraphics July 2008 update which includes a five year forecast for the entire market, identifying today’s market opportunities and today’s strategies for a successful tomorrow.  Join Edsel for some high energy, no nonsense, data driven strategies to be a successful homebuilder in today’s market.

BONUS TOPIC: 10 Reasons Salespeople Fail…10 Solutions to Sell.

COST: Free seminar and show admittance for all builders, remodelers, general contractors and architects.  $40 for all non-exhibiting associates.

In the May 23 edition of the St. Louis Business Journal, Joe gives insight into the economic magnetism, real estate niches and the future of the condo market at this Central Missouri “hot spot”. For more information on the emerging Central Missouri market, give us a call to discuss our new MarketGraphics Data in that region.

Read the full article here: Lake Residential Market Keeps Head Above Water

The MarketGraphics® March 2008 Homes and Subdivision Analysis for the St. Louis Region is published.  Hooray!

The winter audit is generally dreaded…short daylight days to drive, dangerous road conditions, car troubles, and a Jimmy-Carter-esque malaise permeating the new homes market.  The audit leading up to the MarketGraphics March publication was tough as expected, but the results are worth the effort. 

We are thrilled with the new MarketGraphics report, and we feel it has much to offer everyone involved in the new homebuilding and land development business.  1,615 new home subdivisions have been audited, 8,271 homes have been counted as under construction or finished and un-occupied, 3,043 homes are currently available for sale, and MarketGraphics has published 200+ detailed pages about the St. Louis market. 

If you study our MarketGraphics information and/or attend our presentations, you are aware of our logic to present supply, demand, and forecast information to discover your best opportunities for success….as well as to reveal risks to avoid. 

And now for something different…I want to combine an observation from driving the St. Louis market with data from the MarketGraphics report.  I also want to offer two comments and a suggestion. 

Observation.  While we are hearing home buying traffic is “picking up”, the feeling of sustainable vibrancy is missing from new home communities. 

Data. 833 new home displays are open for business in the 10 county St. Louis Region. 

Comment #1.  New homebuilders have the remarkable privilege to establish a “storefront” via a model home at will within a residential setting.  We are not aware of any other type of business that has this opportunity to freely place business locations.  However, very few homebuilders merchandise and energize their model homes as is expected in all other retail storefronts.  While most retailers make a living converting those “just looking” into buyers, “look-i-loos’ are often the bane of the new home sales professional. 

Comment #2.  Something bold, different, and meaningful needs to occur to re-awaken potential homebuyers to begin enjoying the experience of visiting display homes. 

Suggestion.  Magnetize your model homes to become must visit destinations.  Think opposite of simple minded big discounts.  Instead focus on cooking, entertaining, reading, interior decorating, golfing, kids’ soccer training, or whatever activities connect with the demographics of your potential buyers.  Partner with vendors who appreciate your connection with their market and will add to your opportunities.  Challenge new home sales professionals to go retail.  Make something happen at your model homes; the alternative of letting the market happen to you is unlikely to be successful. 
    Joe Zanola

In spite of all the news related to re-sales, foreclosures, and credit issues in the residential development market, today’s greatest inhibitor of home sales is the uncertainty created by the slowing of new homebuilding construction permits.  At MarketGraphics of St. Louis our reports show that the St. Louis homebuilding industry is in the process of migrating from the traditional concept of building homes and moving towards a more comprehensive strategy of creating communities.

It is important to recognize that the more stable level of closings (homes being sold) is a better indicator of the home buying market than permits (homes being built).  Our interpretation of this research data is that the St. Louis region’s new home sales are stronger than perceived, especially when compared to reported variances in permits.

Based on current data, the fluctuation of annual permits from 2003 through 2007 has a greater variance than the number of annual closings.  For example, permits range from 14,757 to 9,427, while closings range from 11,688 to 9,513.

Although the data reveals closings have been relatively stable compared to the more commonly reported permit variances, it is critical to recognize the potential psychological drag on demand.  Builders aggressively starting new homes in 2003-2005 have given homebuyers a tremendous opportunity.  Today lower interest rates and significant home values are available, an incredible combination that should be expected to motivate potential home buyers.

Our market report findings underscore a serious concern related to over-focusing on fewer permits in that it can potentially delay and reduce levels of demand (closings) for new homes.  The research indicates the aggressive building from 2003-2005 assumed an ongoing and generalized demand for the same type of homes that we sold during that time period; changing demographics were not recognized, but now they are readily apparent.

As a result, some unique opportunities in the St. Louis area exist for builders to serve more specialized markets, rather than the single-family market that has dominated for so many years.  Opportunities exist for homebuilders right now in niche markets that are currently being underserved.  We have become so entrenched in providing for the single family or growing family market, we’ve potentially overlooked the fact that it’s not the only one that exists.

Young first-time buyers and baby boomers are the two largest emerging markets now being underserved in new home construction.  These segments have a very different set of demands than traditional single family home buyers. 

In addition, we’re finding this concept of the ‘oasis’ community represents a desire for people in all three segments – first-time buyers, growing families and baby boomers – to live together in multi-generational, diverse communities.  In fact, we’re already seeing trends whereby people are looking for opportunities to live in close proximity with immediate and extended family members.

This unique approach to community planning and home building in the St. Louis metro area also takes into account the fact that the first-time buyer and baby boomer markets represent the age targets projected to increase over the course of the next five years.

Overall, buyers need to envision their future in a home.  They’re increasingly more analytical and they pay more attention to the home’s surroundings.  For this reason, discounts have become a fading trend as customers demand community amenities and incentives from builders. It’s important that developers consider this and create environments that buyers in these growing segments will want to call home five, ten and 15 years from now.

Creating communities with housing product options encompassing the needs of all life cycle stages will be the trend going forward.  These age groups that are increasing by a percentage of the population in our area are foreseen to be the new opportunities for builders to create meaningful places to live for all generations.  From our estimation, exciting planning is underway for a new wave of communities and housing needs that home buyers will begin to see in the not-too-distant future.

Local housing market shows mixed signals

By Eric Becker
Tuesday, February 19, 2008 2:59 PM CST
Well into the first quarter of 2008, the story on housing in St. Charles County remains largely one without a clear ending or even a strong hint of what the denouement might bring.

With the full results for 2007 in, St. Charles County evaded some of the more dramatic drops seen in other parts of the country in new home sales, and average sale price for existing homes remained flat.

But the number of existing home sales dropped 9.3 percent, and new home sales dropped 8.3 percent from 2006 to 2007. Nationally, those numbers were 12.8 percent and 26.4 percent, respectively.Building permit issuance tracked by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis and Eastern Missouri fell 6 percent from 2006 to 2007. During the same period, the St. Louis area as a whole saw an overall decrease in permits of 5 percent. Compared to 2005, the permits issued in St. Charles County fell 31.7 percent.

Joe Zanola, who owns Zanola Company/MarketGraphics in St. Louis, a housing market research firm, tracks new homes built and occupied. “What those numbers are indicating is a logical slowdown in permits in the last two years as we are closing and occupying a supply of homes created in ‘04 and ‘05 that was in excess,” Zanola said from a builders convention in Florida last week, adding that “we have a bit of oversupply.”

While permits can gauge homebuilder confidence in the ability to sell the homes they are building, closings on homes is a much steadier number than the ups and downs of permit numbers.

Merle Schneider, co-owner of Schneider Real Estate in St. Charles, thinks the market bottomed out near the end of November.

In a recovery market, he said, beginner buyers purchasing houses for between $130,000 and $150,000 lead the charge. Schneider said he recently sold a few properties in that range.

“I think we’ve hit the bottom of the trough in 2007,” he said.

Zanola expects median prices per square-footage to stabilize, which would stem some of the hits sellers have taken in a market that has weakened in past years. In order to ensure the health of the home market, Zanola says St. Charles County must provide better options for first-time homebuyers and the traditional retirement market, which typically seek smaller dwellings. Assuming a demand for larger lot sizes and larger homes has prohibited construction of such homes in recent years, Zanola said, laying some of the blame on lot sizes and zoning restrictions.

The entire St. Louis market ranked fifth on Forbes magazine’s list of America’s most stable housing markets. Because the area does not see great appreciation rates during periods of tremendous increases in home prices elsewhere in the country, it also does not swing hard the other way during slow periods.

Realtors in St. Charles County have undertaken a campaign to convince the public the situation is not as dire. During a news conference last week, St. Charles County Association of Realtors Chief Executive Officer Mark Stallmann tried to shift attention to the 2007 housing market’s performance in comparison to 2002, which he referred to as the “last normal market.” In the midst of public concern about the health of the housing market, the Realtors association has characterized the period of 2004 through 2006 as years of unusual growth that should not be used to gauge the present situation.

But subprime woes have touched the county market.

Missy Palitzsch, sales and marketing manager for Continental Title in St. Peters, said foreclosures in St. Charles County rose 10 to 15 percent in from 2006 to 2007. That was a greater rise than from 2005 to 2006, Palitzsch said, though she did not cite numbers.

A great part of that problem, she said, was that several people who put all their money into adjustable rate loans got into trouble when rates reset.

“By the third quarter, we’re hoping the correction has run its course,” she said.

Zanola acknowledges there are signs of weakness in the market in 2007, but argues it has stabilized.

“I feel like it’s stable and growing,” he said.

From 2006 to 2007:

Median home price: + 0.1 percent St. Charles County; - 1.4 percent Nationally

Single-family sales: - 9.3 percent St. Charles County; - 12.8 percent Nationally

New home sales: - 8.3 percent St. Charles County; - 26.4 percent Nationally